Marathon World Records - From Eliud Kipchoge to Paula Radcliffe

Marathon runners are a different breed. They strive on enduring hours of intense effort, managing their fluid intake, and they push themselves to the limit.

As athletes improve their training, the progression of world record times for marathon runners gets faster and faster. The International Association of Athletics Federations, or IAAF, is the international governing body for the sports of athletics and they ratify world records in the marathon.

Related - The Ultimate Guide to Running

Criteria for Record Eligibility

In order for a marathon to be ratified as a world record by the IAAF, there are a few specific requirements that need to be met.

The course must be 42.195 km, or 26.219 miles long, measured using a calibrated bicycle measurement. The course must meet other criteria that rule out artificially fast times produced on the courses aided by a downhill slope or tailwind.

Some other criteria include:

• The start and finish points of a course, measured along a theoretical straight line between them, shall not be further apart than 50% of the race distance.
• The decrease in elevation between the start and finish shall not exceed an average of one in a thousand, i.e. 1m per km.

For example, the marathon runner from Kenya Geoffrey Mutai hit a mark of 2:03:02 at the 2011 Boston Marathon and at the time it was "the fastest marathon run ever," but the IAAF deemed the elevation drop and point-to-point measurements of the course means runners are not eligible for World record consideration.

The Association of Road Racing Statisticians is an independent organization that compiles data from road running events. They also maintain an alternate marathon world record progression, but with standards that are more stringent.

Eliud Kipchoge

If you follow marathon records at all, Eliud Kipchoge is someone to you. This Kenyan runner is the world-record holder and will try to be the first person to break the two-hour barrier in a marathon.

Kipchoge currently holds the world record of 2:01:39 at the Berlin Marathon. This was set on September 16, 2018. Eliud is looking to break the two-hour barrier in late September or early October. He sees both London and Bettersea Park as a possibility due to it being a flat, looped circuit.

Kipchoge set the official record in Berlin under legal conditions, although the race does use pacesetters. Kipchoge believes he can up the pace and has been close to unbeatable in a marathon in recent years.

Eliud has won major marathons in Rotterdam and Chicago, he has won four times in London and three times in Belin. He's the reigning Olympic marathon champion and has silver and bronze medals in track from his earlier years.

Since Kipchoge is gunning for more records, we can presume he will not race in any major fall marathon, including New York and Chicago, even though they are largely flat and considered the fastest major marathon in the United States.

This world record attempt is sponsored by Ineos, a chemicals company. This company has been faced with environmental protests over the involvement with fracking and other issues. Jim Ratcliffe is the chairman and the billionaire has been noted saying "Eliud Kipchoge is the greatest ever marathon runner and the only athlete in the world who has any chance of beating the two-hour time."

He goes on to say that "we make billions in profits so what's wrong with investing a bit of that in sport, in good challenges, good people?" Ineos also sponsors a top cycling team, formerly known as Team Sky. It included Chris Froome, which is the four-time Tour de France winner.

What the Scientists Predict

Even though Eliud crossed the Berlin finish line in 2:01:39, statisticians think there's a one in ten chance that the first person to break the two-hour marathon will do it in 2032. This means Kipchoge will be 47.

Scientists used a statistical model to analyze timing and data of races from as far back as 1950, provided by the IAAF. Researchers think in May of 2032, a male runner will run the marathon in 01:58:05.

They published their studies in the Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise journal. Researchers found the chances of a female runner breaking the world record is less likely — with lower than a one in one hundred chance. Scientists predict the record will be 02:05:31.

Dr. Simon Angus is an associate professor of economics at Monash Business School and the author of the paper. He states "breaking the sub-two-hour marathon in an official event has attracted growing interest in recent times with commercial and international momentum building."

He goes on to say "prospects of a male athlete going sub-two hours in an IAAF event, even in the near future, would appear high given that the most recent world record reduced the mark by 78 seconds, and the Nike Breaking2 project produced a time just 25 seconds outside this two-hour barrier."

But he thinks a 13-year wait seems more in line with the data they've studied.

Angus goes on to say "while a sub-two-hour run could occur any time between now and May 2032, the likelihood of that occurring is extremely rare. In my opinion, this finding should cause public and private actors to work harder at reducing barriers and increasing opportunities for elite female athletic performance. The evidence of this study ant others means there are likely world-record female marathoners living today, principally in Africa... we just don't know who they are yet."

Many physiologists and other scientists have been noted saying that humans aren't genetically predisposed to run a sub-two-hour marathon, but they believe it could happen in their lifetime.

World Records

Let's break down some of the world records.

TABLE NOTE: [Runner | Finish Time | Pace/Mile | Marathon]

10 Fastest Men Marathoners on a Record-Eligible Course

• Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:01:39 - 4:38.4 - Berlin, 2018
• Mosinet Geremew (Ethiopia) - 2:02:55 - 4:41.3 - London, 2019
• Dennis Kimetto (Kenya) - 2:02:57 - 4:41.4 - Berlin, 2014
• Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) - 2:03:03 - 4:41.6 - Berlin, 2016
• Wilson Kipsang (Kenya) - 2:03:13 - 4:42.0 - Berlin, 2016
• Emmanuel Mutai (Kenya) - 2:03:13 - 4:42.0 - Berlin, 2014
• Mule Wasihun (Ethiopia) - 2:03:16 - 4:42.1 - London, 2019
• Getaneh Molla (Ethiopia) - 2:03:34 - 4:42.0 - Dubai, 2019
• Patrick Makau (Kenya) - 2:03:38 - 4:43.0 - Berlin, 2011
• Herpassa Negasa (Ethiopia) - 2:03:40 - 4:43.1 - Dubai, 2019

10 Fastest Women Marathoners on a Record-Eligible Course

• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:15:25 - 5:09.9 - London, 2003
• Mary Keitany (Kenya) - 2:17:01 - 5:13.6 - London, 2017
• Ruth Chepngetich (Kenya) - 2:17:08 - 5:13.8 - Dubai, 2019
• Worknesh Degefa (Ethiopia) - 2:17:41 - 5:15.1 - Dubai, 2019
• Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) - 2:17:56 - 5:15.7 - London, 2017
• Gladys Cherono (Kenya) - 2:18:11 - 5:16.2 - Berlin, 2018
• Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) - 2:18:20 - 5:16.8 - London, 2019
• Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) - 2:18:31 - 5:17.1 - London, 2018
• Ruta Aga (Ethiopia) - 2:18:34 - 5:17.2 - Berlin, 2018
• Catherine Ndereba (Kenya) - 2:18:47 - 5:17.6 - Chicago, 2001

10 Fastest American Men Marathoners on a Record-Eligible Course

• Khalid Khannouchi - 2:05:38 - 4:47.5 - London, 2002
• Galen Rupp - 2:06:07 - 4:48.6 - Prague, 2018
• Ryan Hall - 2:06:17 - 4:49.0 - London, 2008
• Dathan Ritzenhein - 2:07:47 - 4:52.4 - Chicago, 2012
• Abdi Abdirahman - 2:08:56 - 4:55.0 - Chicago, 2006
• Meb Keflezighi - 2:09:08 - 4:55.5 - Olympic Marathon Trials, 2012
• Alberto Salazar - 2:09:21 - 4:56.0 - Fukuoka, 1983
• David Morris - 2:09:32 - 4:56.4 - Chicago, 1999
• Jerry Lawson - 2:09:35 - 4:56.5 - Chicago, 1997
• Alan Culpepper - 2:09:41 - 4:56.7 - Chicago, 2002

10 Fastest American Women Marathoners on a Record-Eligible Course

• Deena Kastor - 2:19:36 - 5:19.5 - London, 2006
• Jordan Hasay - 2:20:57 - 5:22.7 - Chicago, 2017
• Shalane Flanagan - 2:21:14 - 5:23.2 - Berlin, 2014
• Joan Samuelson - 2:21:21 - 5:23.5 - Chicago, 1985
• Amy Cragg - 2:21:42 - 5:24.3 - Tokyo, 2018
• Emily Sisson - 2:23:08 - 5:27.5 - London, 2019
• Laura Thweatt - 2:25:38 - 5:33.3 - London, 2017
• Kara Goucher - 2:25:53 - 5:33.9 - New York City, 2008
• Des Linden - 2:25:55 - 5:33.9 - Olympic Marathon Trials, 2012
• Sara Hall - 2:26:20 - 5:34.9 - Ottawa, 2018

10 Fastest Marathons on a Record-Eligible Course - Men

• Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:01:39 - 4:38.4 - Berlin, 2018
• Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:02:37 - 4:40.6 - London, 2019
• Mosinet Geremew (Ethiopia) - 2:02:55 - 4:41.3 - London, 2019
• Dennis Kimetto (Kenya) - 2:02:57 - 4:41.4 - Berlin, 2014
• Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) - 2:03:03 - 4:41.6 - Berlin, 2016
• Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:03:05 - 4:41.7 - London, 2016
• Wilson Kipsang (Kenya) - 2:03:13 - 4:42.0 - Berlin, 2016
• Emmanuel Mutai (Kenya) - 2:03:13 - 4:42.0 - Berlin, 2014
• Mule Wasihun (Ethiopia) - 2:03:16 - 4:42.1 - London, 2019
• Wilson Kipsang (Kenya) - 2:03:23 - 4:42.4 - Berlin, 2013

10 Fastest Marathons on a Record-Eligible Course - Women

• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:15:25 - 5:09.9 - London, 2003
• Mary Keitany (Kenya) - 2:17:01 - 5:13.6 - London, 2017
• Ruth Chepngetich (Kenya) - 2:17:08 - 5:13.8 - Dubai, 2019
• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:17:18 - 5:14.2 - Chicago, 2002
• Worknesh Degefa (Ethiopia) - 2:17:41 - 5:15.1 - Dubai, 2019
• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:17:42 - 5:15.1 - London, 2005
• Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) - 2:17:56 - 5:15.7 - London, 2017
• Gladys Cherono (Kenya) - 2:18:11 - 5:16.2 - Berlin, 2018
• Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) - 2:18:20 - 5:16.8 - London, 2019
• Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) - 2:18:31 - 5:17.1 - London, 2018

Progression of World Records Since 1988 - Men

• Belayneh Densamo (Ethiopia) - 2:06:50 - 4:50.3 - Rotterdam, 1988
• Ronaldo da Costa (Brazil) - 2:06:06 - 4:48.6 - Berlin, 1998
• Khalid Khannouchi (Morocco) - 2:05:42 - 4:47.7 - Chicago, 1999
• Khalid Khannouchi (United States) - 2:05:38 - 4:47.5 - London, 2002
• Paul Tergat (Kenya) - 2:04:55 - 4:45.9 - Berlin, 2003
• Haile Gebrselassie (Ethiopia) - 2:04:26 - 4:44.8 - Berlin, 2007
• Haile Gebrselassie (Ethiopia) - 2:03:59 - 4:43.7 - Berlin, 2008
• Patrick Makau (Kenya) - 2:03:38 - 4:43.0 - Berlin, 2011
• Wilson Kipsang (Kenya) - 2:03:23 - 4:42.4 - Berlin, 2013
• Dennis Kimetto (Kenya) - 2:02:57 - 4:41.4 Berlin, 2014
• Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:01:39 - 4:38.4 - Berlin, 2018

Progression of World Records Since 1988 - Women

• Tegla Loroupe (Kenya) - 2:20:47 - 5:22.2 - Rotterdam, 1998
• Tegla Loroupe (Kenya) - 2:20:43 - 5:22.0 - Berlin, 1999
• Naoko Takahashi (Japan) - 2:19:46 - 5:19.8 - Berlin, 2001
• Catherine Ndereba (Kenya) - 2:18:47 - 5:17.6 - Chicago, 2001
• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:17:18 - 5:14.2 - Chicago, 2002
• Paula Radcliffe (Great Britain) - 2:15:25 - 5:09.9 - London, 2003

Average of Top 10 Performances in History - Men

NOTE: [Average | Marathon]

• 2:03:14 - Berlin
• 2:03:59 - London
• 2:04:13 - Dubai
• 2:04:40 - Chicago
• 2:04:52 - Rotterdam
• 2:05:09 - Amsterdam
• 2:05:21 - Valencia
• 2:05:37 - Frankfurt
• 2:05:39 - Boston
• 2:05:52 - Tokyo

Average of Top 10 Performances in History - Women

• 2:18:17 - London
• 2:19:10 - Dubai
• 2:19:19 - Berlin
• 2:19:31 - Chicago
• 2:21:17 - Boston
• 2:21:26 - Tokyo
• 2:21:42 - Frankfurt
• 2:21:51 - Paris
• 2:22:23 - Nagoya
• 2:22:25 - Osaka

An Unofficial Record Attempt

In December of 2016, Nike had three top distance runners to forgo the spring marathon season to work with the company in an effort to run a sub-two-hour marathon. The three runners were Eliud Kipchoge, Zersenay Tadese, and Lelisa Desisa.

The event took place in the early morning of May 6, 2017, where Kipchoge crossed the finish line with a time of 2:00:25 — two minutes faster than the world record at the time, but was not an official world record. This was due to many factors, but they used specialized pacers to keep Kipchoge on pace.

Do you think Eliud Kipchoge or anyone else will break the two-hour marathon before 2032?